Volcanic Ash (21/04/10)

Another ‘Black Swan’ incident for us to try to wrestle with.

Living on the Birmingham Airport flight path as I do it was easy to notice the noise difference but the economic impact is really only now starting to be understood. Will some airlines fail as a result of this, will air travel suffer another hit, hotels are reporting major losses from cancellations – the list goes on.

At a debate I was asked what would I do different if I had known – but surely this is the challenge – we did not know. Europe’s active earthquakes are in Italy and until last week the risk of Icelandic eruptions had not been factored in. Hence the ‘Black Swan’ reference – if you don’t understand it do follow the link above – you will not be disappointed.

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